Global demand for the fossil fuel is expected to hit a record 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, and stay near that level for the next three years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
Growth in renewables is forecast to drive down coal use in the longer term, but this year its impact will be more than offset by strong demand for the carbon-heavy resource in the two Asian giants.
Demand in China, by far the world’s largest coal consumer, is likely to grow by 1% in 2024 to reach 4.9 billion tonnes, nearly a third higher than in the rest of the world combined. The country is set to import 500 million tonnes, more than double the previous import record.
One in every three tonnes of coal used worldwide is burned at a power plant in China to cope with the country’s enormous electricity demand, the report said.
India is also expected to consume more coal than the EU and the US combined as demand in the Asian nation rises by more than 5% to 1.3 billion tonnes, a level previously only reached by China, the report said.
Elsewhere, coal has dropped to 35% of the global power mix, its lowest level, as strong growth in renewable power supply helps countries meet growing demand for energy, it said.
China’s reliance on coal should contract in the coming years as it accelerates wind and solar development and advances the construction of nuclear power plants.
Electricity usage is also expected to grow in 2025 due to a combination of factors, including the electrification of services like transport and heating, rising demand for cooling, and increasing consumption from emerging sectors such as data centres, the report said.
IEA Director of Energy Markets and Security, Keisuke Sadamori, said: “Weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand.
“The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term.”
China used around 3.6 billion tonnes of coal in 2023, roughly one billion more than in 2016, according to The Coal Hub, a coal industry website.
Read more:
UK’s last coal-fired power station shuts
No coal to keep lights on this winter
Global coal production is expected to reach an all-time high, surpassing 9 billion tonnes for the first time, as the three largest producers, China, India and Indonesia, hit new highs.
